Flash Flood Analysis [on hold]

I have an aster 30 m DEM and i want to estimate an outburst of an artificial lake which has been created due to the landslide, can any one tell me how can i do this,

I just want to estimate the outburst of the water at that particular point where the lake has been made and make a sort of animation that when this lake outburst what areas will be affected first. Like in the given image i have done a short analysis in global mapper like when we increase the water level at this region at what level that point is inundated but i want to make a reverse analysis like when this point burst what areas will be effected as this figure is providing the reverse picture.